Walmart's Worry List - stock up now before tariffs kick in

Waorani

Back to the Island
Feb 14, 2017
663
296
63
Auburn, AL
#1
Essentials Walmart says will go up in price (bold are greatest concern). Stock up now before it's too late. https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-products-hit-hardest-by-trump-china-trade-war-2018-9
  1. Mandarin oranges in cans
  2. Rawhide for pets
  3. Hair care
  4. Other bath prep
  5. Dog leashes, dog collars
  6. Cat leashes, pet costumes
  7. Hard luggage
  8. Luggage, tote bags, duffle bags, handbags
  9. Travel bags, handbags
  10. Handbags
  11. Backpacks
  12. Rolled wrapping paper
  13. Gas grills
  14. Makeup mirrors
  15. Vacuum cleaners
  16. Toothbrush replacement heads
  17. Electric razors
  18. Air conditioners
  19. HDMI cables, video cables, extension cords, auxiliary cords
  20. Oil-less fryers and toaster ovens
  21. Bicycles
  22. Futons
  23. Wooden furniture
  24. Miscellaneous furniture, like infant pack-and-plays or patio furniture
  25. Mattresses
  26. Christmas lights
 

mcameron

Sergeant of the Hide
Nov 17, 2011
2,901
3,446
113
#4
I make it a point to never shop in Walmart.

I hope prices fucking skyrocket on cheap Chinese shit.....because that will backfire

People deal with shit quality because prices are cheap....but if it cost me the same to buy some cheap shit as it does to buy quality American shit..... why wouldn’t I just buy American?
 

diverdon

Online Training Member
Dec 21, 2011
3,042
1,267
113
WNY
#9
I make it a point to never shop in Walmart.

I hope prices fucking skyrocket on cheap Chinese shit.....because that will backfire

People deal with shit quality because prices are cheap....but if it cost me the same to buy some cheap shit as it does to buy quality American shit..... why wouldn’t I just buy American?
When you find an American made HDMI cable, let me know.
 

ZY100

Sergeant
Oct 13, 2007
223
29
28
VA
#14
When you find an American made HDMI cable, let me know.

Exactly. That’s the point.....now some US based company can get into the market and be viable at a price point that will sustain them. And in reality probably with not much of an increase in cost to us.
 
Last edited:
Likes: diverdon

diverdon

Online Training Member
Dec 21, 2011
3,042
1,267
113
WNY
#15
Exactaly. That’s the point.....now some are US based company can get into the market and be viable at a price point that will sustain them. And in reality probably with not much of an increase in cost to us.
I would not invest in a company doing that. As soon as the tariffs go away the Chinese shit will flood back in priced to take 90% of your sales. You are stuck with all your inventory and out the money you used to set up your production process.
 

lash

Swamp Rat
Sep 28, 2012
3,238
918
113
59
Central Florida
#17
Maybe...it depends upon the company. We produce machined aluminum connectors for the automotive industry. As an American company, we do everything in our ability to compete directly with the landed prices of the Chinese competitors in this business (and they have the double advantages of government controlled and backed aluminum prices and low cost labor. It canbe done with American ingenuity and efficiency innovation.

The Chinese manufacturing model works right now, but is unsustainable in the long term. I say, be part of the solution.

Edit: response to diverdon. Just slow is all.
 
Likes: diverdon

Marinevet1

Full Member
Feb 14, 2017
607
270
63
#19
the news this morning says China's stock market is crashing, expect a call soon to DJT to work out a deal............don't know if it's true............
 
Likes: pmclaine

pmclaine

Gunny Sergeant
Nov 6, 2011
7,348
3,898
113
50
MA
#20
Make sure you buy ten of each one of those shitty products because thats how many you will go through instead of paying once and buying a good quality product.

The mandarin oranges will probably give you the shits too.
 

pmclaine

Gunny Sergeant
Nov 6, 2011
7,348
3,898
113
50
MA
#21
Maybe...it depends upon the company. We produce machined aluminum connectors for the automotive industry. As an American company, we do everything in our ability to compete directly with the landed prices of the Chinese competitors in this business (and they have the double advantages of government controlled and backed aluminum prices and low cost labor. It canbe done with American ingenuity and efficiency innovation.

The Chinese manufacturing model works right now, but is unsustainable in the long term. I say, be part of the solution.

Edit: response to diverdon. Just slow is all.
Which will end first their long term agenda or our domestic manufacturing base?

Lets not find out and save our jobs here in the USA.
 

lash

Swamp Rat
Sep 28, 2012
3,238
918
113
59
Central Florida
#22
Don't misunderstand me, I am neither argueing for or against tariffs. What I am saying is that markets eventually adjust, even while some take the easy way out and move manufacturing offshore.

And you should know that I've always been concerned for our manufacturing capabilities here. It has been a pet peeve of mine since I was old enough to write college papers about it while others were writing about their summer vacations and their dreams of white picket fences.

I chose a somewhat harder path than some by spending my career in manufacturing and construction. Along the way, I have seen how ingenuity and innovation is used all of the time to compete directly in markets where there is an unfair advantage for one party. Be that government intervention, closed shop practices or quota sourcing. These are all forms of exclusionary methods used to provide an advantage to a group, nation or bloc. In the end, they are always confounded by innovation, persistence and the economic realities of artificial propping up of markets.

For years, the Chinese model kicked our buts in our market, but in the past couple of years, our constant efficiency improvements and new manufacturing methods have allowed us to begin taking back some of that business while still improving margins and EBITA.

I believe that tariffs can be used for short term economic advantage and to create pressure on markets and governments, but as a long term strategy, it cannot sustain the advantage.

I'll end this rambling by stating that my experiences, especially most recently, have helped restore my faith that there is hope for manufacturing here in America. Mostly, it lies with the innovation and drive that comes from small businesses run by driven entrepreneurs that find our country is a great place to succeed if only you want to do so and work to make it happen.
 

pmclaine

Gunny Sergeant
Nov 6, 2011
7,348
3,898
113
50
MA
#23
I agree that on an even playing field our workers and factories should outproduce china but.......

China falsely manipulates their economy and unlike how we manipulate our economy they do it to the benefit of their economy.

we offshore our pollution and hinder our businesses with regulation.

All I want tariffs to do is have the chinese pay for their share of regulation our companies have to comply with and account for the propping up of manufacturing that China does by depressing wages and currency manipulation.

China treats their manufacturers like our government treats the thieving financial industry.
 

lash

Swamp Rat
Sep 28, 2012
3,238
918
113
59
Central Florida
#24
I don't disagree with anything that you just said.

I'm just noting that even China's economic manipulation is not sustainable. They are already feeling the effects of too many years of a propped up economic manufacturing model. In this case, a tarrif just may be the right thing at the right time to break down the advantage.
 

Tucker301

Groundskeeper
Staff member
Feb 13, 2015
7,111
3,864
113
Southern VA
#30
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-reality-now-on-impossible-tax-deficit-goals


Economics
China Is Hitting Reality Now on ‘Impossible’ Tax, Deficit Goals
Bloomberg News
September 20, 2018, 12:01 PM EDT Updated on September 20, 2018, 9:55 PM EDT



China’s government is grappling with an inconvenient truth: you can’t cut taxes, boost spending and reduce the budget deficit all at the same time.


Having promised to do all three this year, a slowing economy coupled with the trade war with the U.S. is now underlining the contradiction in the government’s goals. Incomplete implementation of tax cuts and a rising social-security burden are also worsening the downward pressure on consumers’ spending power.


The government is looking into that situation, Premier Li Keqiang said Thursday, and expects that tax revenue will see a relatively large decline in the second half of the year. There are also plans for further tax reductions, he said, and a lowering of the burden of social security payments.



Those measures may well encourage consumption, as Li claims, but are unlikely to do anything to help achieve the goal of reducing the budget deficit. While policy makers are expected to hit their tightened target of a deficit of 2.6 percent for this year, it may to be at the expense of a reversal in 2019.



Taxes Grow Faster Than Economy


Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg Calculations
Note: Revenue data shows year-on-year change in quarterly revenue.
"It’s impossible to cut tax, maintain government expenditure growth but not adjust the deficit at the same time", said Song Yu, chief China economist at Beijing Gao Hua Securities Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s mainland joint-venture partner. Without a meaningful cut in spending, the only effective way to cut taxes is to widen the deficit, according to Song, and the government needs to be explicit about it.

China Politburo Signals Greater Focus on Growth Amid Trade Spat
China has gaps to fill when it comes to paying for public services like health-care and provision for the elderly, especially with an aging society and an economy that’s on a long-term glide path to more modest rates of growth. Nevertheless, the government is now poised to water down reforms of the social security system that Nomura Holdings Inc estimates could have shaved up to 0.6 percentage point from output growth.



Domestically listed companies will see their labor costs rising by 105 billion yuan ($15.3 billion) due to stringent collection of social security payments, or 3.2 percent of their net profit, China International Capital Corp analyst Wang Hanfeng wrote in a report. Labor-intensive industries such as logistics and catering will feel a bigger impact.
Altering the deficit target would mean reversing March’s policy to cut that deficit, which had been part of Premier Li Keqiang’s plan to reduce risk in the economy. To do so, the government will have to find new revenue sources, and with tax hikes off the table, that means new bond sales and borrowing at both central and local levels.
From 2019, policy makers will likely have to raise the annual budget deficit target, "otherwise fiscal authorities will be forced to tighten collection to meet the expenditure demand, and there’ll be no reduction of the burden for businesses and households in the end," Song said.
With tensions increasing with the U.S. over trade and the slowdown of the domestic economy, the government has revised its strategy to focus more on growth. Since the start of July, the State Council has convened a series of meetings to look at new investment projects, pushed local governments to sell bonds faster and spend money, and added tax breaks, offering at least an extra 65 billion yuan of tax cuts in addition to 1.1 trillion yuan of reductions planned already this year.



Local Governments Sell More Debt
Reducing demand for sovereign bonds

Source: Bloomberg
Note: Figures are as of Sept. 20, 2018



In addition, reform of the personal income tax code includes new deductions aimed at helping middle-class families. While the measures which partly start next month should support consumption, it still puts extra weight on fiscal policy which is the natural shock absorber at a time of stress.
The stricter collection of taxes this year has meant businesses felt the pinch, with the government stepping up local law-enforcement inspection to crack down on tax evasion, especially on corporate value-added tax.
So while the measures Li flagged Thursday to reduce the burden on companies may help alleviate that, investment is still sluggish, indicating that more time and, potentially, further policy changes will be needed.
Officials are tackling a very fluid, unclear situation, and sentiment is rapidly worsening, triggered by the trade war, wealth management rules and other challenges, said Wen Bin, researcher at China Minsheng Banking Corp. in Beijing.
"When business sentiments is weak, more government-funded projects are necessary to quickly drive up demand along the supply chain," according to Wen, who estimates China needs to raise the annual budget deficit target to 3 percent in 2019, from this year’s 2.6 percent.
"There’s a long way to go to achieve meaningful tax cuts to households and companies, especially the smaller ones," said Zhao Bo, professor of economics at Peking University. "It requires painful reforms. And sometimes you just have to give up something."
 

diverdon

Online Training Member
Dec 21, 2011
3,042
1,267
113
WNY
#31
To briefly restate what Tucker posted. The Chinese economy is a house of cards. I would like to add that if we (President Trump) remove one of the foundational cards and bring the house down the cards will collapse into a chaotic arrangement which may be accompanied by war and death.

I do believe that what President Trump is doing is 100% necessary to get them to play fair.

My dad used to tell a story of a kind farmer who had a stubborn mule. A neighbor came by one day and said that his work horse had just died and could he borrow the mule to finish plowing his fields. The farmer said that he was welcome to borrow the mule but that he did not want him to beat the mule, and it probably would do him no good as the mule was too stubborn to pull a plow.

A week later thankfully returning the mule with all his fields plowed, the kind farmer expressed astonishment that the mule had been so useful. The other farmer praised the mule and said that it was the hardest working farm animal he had ever seen. So the first farmer hitches the mule to his plow and says: "haa-lets-go-nellie" and the mule just stands there. The second farmer picks up a 2X4 and smacks it across the mules head and says: "haa-lets-go-nellie" and the mule takes off pulling the plow.

The kind farmer said "I thought we were in agreement that you were not going to beat the mule?" The second farmer replied "I didn"t beat him, I just got his attention."

How this story is relevant to China tariffs (IMHO)---We need to get China's attention---but if we hit too hard and kill the mule that will not be the desired result.
 
May 20, 2006
1,898
993
113
Winnipeg, Mb.
#36
To briefly restate what Tucker posted. The Chinese economy is a house of cards. I would like to add that if we (President Trump) remove one of the foundational cards and bring the house down the cards will collapse into a chaotic arrangement which may be accompanied by war and death.

I do believe that what President Trump is doing is 100% necessary to get them to play fair.

My dad used to tell a story of a kind farmer who had a stubborn mule. A neighbor came by one day and said that his work horse had just died and could he borrow the mule to finish plowing his fields. The farmer said that he was welcome to borrow the mule but that he did not want him to beat the mule, and it probably would do him no good as the mule was too stubborn to pull a plow.

A week later thankfully returning the mule with all his fields plowed, the kind farmer expressed astonishment that the mule had been so useful. The other farmer praised the mule and said that it was the hardest working farm animal he had ever seen. So the first farmer hitches the mule to his plow and says: "haa-lets-go-nellie" and the mule just stands there. The second farmer picks up a 2X4 and smacks it across the mules head and says: "haa-lets-go-nellie" and the mule takes off pulling the plow.

The kind farmer said "I thought we were in agreement that you were not going to beat the mule?" The second farmer replied "I didn"t beat him, I just got his attention."

How this story is relevant to China tariffs (IMHO)---We need to get China's attention---but if we hit too hard and kill the mule that will not be the desired result.
While I agree with you, and I also agree with this premise, let me propose a question for you and all. How far is this situation differing from the perspective that the Japanese had regarding a similar situation in 1938-39?

Just a question. Not a warning, and not a threat.
 

Tucker301

Groundskeeper
Staff member
Feb 13, 2015
7,111
3,864
113
Southern VA
#41
Imagine if all of those Chinese manufacturing jobs ended up in Mexico.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-trading-partners-benefit-trump-trade-war-china-2018-9


These US trading partners could pick up the slack if Trump's trade war with China escalates



Sam Jacobs,
Business Insider Australia

24m
Mexico could stand to benefit from escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Matthias Hangst/Getty Images

  • Mexico could pick up more than 25% of China's current trade share if US importers look elsewhere.
  • US President Trump announced 10% tariffs last week on $200 million of Chinese goods, but many analysts expect that will increase to 25% in January.
  • Macquarie modeled which countries could pick up the slack if Chinese imports become too expensive.

Mexico stands to benefit the most as an alternative US trading partner if the US-China trade war escalates further, Macquarie says.
Global markets are assessing the potential fallout after President Trump hit China with 10% tariffs on another $200 billion of imports last week.
The initial response was one of indifference — the S&P500 rose to a new record high, and Chinese stocks capped the week with their best daily gain since May 2016.
But China cancelled further trade talks over the weekend, and multiple analysts expect the US to raise tariffs to 25% in January if a deal can't be reached.
If that happens, many US companies that source goods from China will likely have to look elsewhere.
Macquarie's global economics team ran some numbers to estimate which other countries are best-placed to pick up the slack.
Along with Mexico, other countries that stand to benefit include Vietnam, South Korea, Canada, and Taiwan:
Macquarie Bank
The analysts used a two-step process:
1. Identified 300 product codes (out of 1,300 total) that represent around 95% of US imports from China;
2. For product codes that come from China, reassign them to other trading partners. The process is done pro-rata, based on each country's current level of exports for those goods.
As an example, the analysts chose product code HS-8517 — electric apparatus for telephone parts.
Currently, China exports $73.48 billion worth of these products to the US annually, accounting for 65.10% of total US imports in this category.
Mexico is in second place with a 10% share. So excluding China, Mexico's revised pro-rata share of the pie increases to 28.82%.
Here's what the table looks like for the top HS-8517 exporters:
Macquarie Bank
"We emphasise that these estimates should be taken cautiously and as an illustration given current trade patterns," Macquarie said.
"Actual shifts would likely be far more complex. Nonetheless, we see value in conducting high-level estimates."
Late last month, the US and Mexico reached an agreement on key changes in NAFTA trade negotiations— an important step in reshaping the current deal.
 

pmclaine

Gunny Sergeant
Nov 6, 2011
7,348
3,898
113
50
MA
#42
Imagine if all of those Chinese manufacturing jobs ended up in Mexico.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-trading-partners-benefit-trump-trade-war-china-2018-9


These US trading partners could pick up the slack if Trump's trade war with China escalates



Sam Jacobs,
Business Insider Australia

24m
Mexico could stand to benefit from escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Matthias Hangst/Getty Images

  • Mexico could pick up more than 25% of China's current trade share if US importers look elsewhere.
  • US President Trump announced 10% tariffs last week on $200 million of Chinese goods, but many analysts expect that will increase to 25% in January.
  • Macquarie modeled which countries could pick up the slack if Chinese imports become too expensive.

Mexico stands to benefit the most as an alternative US trading partner if the US-China trade war escalates further, Macquarie says.
Global markets are assessing the potential fallout after President Trump hit China with 10% tariffs on another $200 billion of imports last week.
The initial response was one of indifference — the S&P500 rose to a new record high, and Chinese stocks capped the week with their best daily gain since May 2016.
But China cancelled further trade talks over the weekend, and multiple analysts expect the US to raise tariffs to 25% in January if a deal can't be reached.
If that happens, many US companies that source goods from China will likely have to look elsewhere.
Macquarie's global economics team ran some numbers to estimate which other countries are best-placed to pick up the slack.
Along with Mexico, other countries that stand to benefit include Vietnam, South Korea, Canada, and Taiwan:
Macquarie Bank
The analysts used a two-step process:
1. Identified 300 product codes (out of 1,300 total) that represent around 95% of US imports from China;
2. For product codes that come from China, reassign them to other trading partners. The process is done pro-rata, based on each country's current level of exports for those goods.
As an example, the analysts chose product code HS-8517 — electric apparatus for telephone parts.
Currently, China exports $73.48 billion worth of these products to the US annually, accounting for 65.10% of total US imports in this category.
Mexico is in second place with a 10% share. So excluding China, Mexico's revised pro-rata share of the pie increases to 28.82%.
Here's what the table looks like for the top HS-8517 exporters:
Macquarie Bank
"We emphasise that these estimates should be taken cautiously and as an illustration given current trade patterns," Macquarie said.
"Actual shifts would likely be far more complex. Nonetheless, we see value in conducting high-level estimates."
Late last month, the US and Mexico reached an agreement on key changes in NAFTA trade negotiations— an important step in reshaping the current deal.

Than Mexico would have money to build a wall......
 
Top Bottom