Long Range - Hit Probability Analysis

Sep 1, 2011
181
38
28
Rockwall, TX
#1
Assumptions:
1st Shot Only
Wind Call: Within 2 MPH
Wind Direction: Within 10 Degrees
Muzzle Velocity SD: 15 FPS
Range: Within 15 Yards
Barrel Length: 26"
Bullet: Highest BC that is over 2500 FPS
Rifle Precision: 1 MOA
Target Size: 12"
Target Range: 1200 Yards


#75
I have been working on a matrix to demonstrate where we can look at the effect of velocity on our HIT% and the corresponding RECOIL. +/- 3% but this should give you some real insight. The 90 VLD look very appealing for PRS style matches in a 22 Creedmoor or 22 Nosler for a gas gun and for the best of all worlds the 7mm because at low velocity it beats everything in Hit % with a manageable recoil and at high velocity it is a long range hammer.


5.56 - 90 VLD - 2500 - 11% - Recoil Energy of 6.42 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 2600 - 13% - Recoil Energy of 6.70 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 2700 - 14% - Recoil Energy of 6.98 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 2800 - 18% - Recoil Energy of 7.26 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 2900 - 20% - Recoil Energy of 7.54 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 3000 - 23% - Recoil Energy of 7.82 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 3100 - 26% - Recoil Energy of 8.10 (ft.lbf)

5.56 - 90 VLD - 3200 - 30% - Recoil Energy of 8.38 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 3300 - 33% - Recoil Energy of 8.64 (ft.lbf)

6 - 115 VLD - 2500 - 11% - Recoil Energy of 8.33 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 2600 - 12% - Recoil Energy of 8.74 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 2700 - 14% - Recoil Energy of 9.15 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 2800 - 16% - Recoil Energy of 9.56 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 2900 - 18% - Recoil Energy of 9.97 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 3000 - 22% - Recoil Energy of 10.38 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 3100 - 26% - Recoil Energy of 10.79 (ft.lbf)

6 - 115 VLD - 3200 - 30% - Recoil Energy of 11.20 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 3300 - 32% - Recoil Energy of 11.59 (ft.lbf)

6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2500 - 18% - Recoil Energy of 11.13 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2600 - 20% - Recoil Energy of 11.73 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2700 - 23% - Recoil Energy of 12.33 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2800 - 27% - Recoil Energy of 12.93 (ft.lbf)

6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2900 - 31% - Recoil Energy of 13.53 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 3000 - 35% - Recoil Energy of 14.13 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 3100 - 38% - Recoil Energy of 14.73 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 3200 - 43% - Recoil Energy of 15.33 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 3300 - 49% - Recoil Energy of 15.99 (ft.lbf)

7 - 180 ELDM - 2500 - 28% - Recoil Energy of 14.45 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 2600 - 31% - Recoil Energy of 15.30 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 2700 - 34% - Recoil Energy of 16.15 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 2800 - 38% - Recoil Energy of 17.00 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 2900 - 43% - Recoil Energy of 17.85 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 3000 - 47% - Recoil Energy of 18.70 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 3100 - 52% - Recoil Energy of 19.55 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 3200 - 56% - Recoil Energy of 20.40 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 3300 - 61% - Recoil Energy of 21.52 (ft.lbf)

7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2500 - 26% - Recoil Energy of 20.94 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2600 - 28% - Recoil Energy of 23.74 (ft.lbf)

7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2700 - 32% - Recoil Energy of 26.91 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2800 - 37% - Recoil Energy of 29.68 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2900 - 42% - Recoil Energy of 32.57 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 3000 - 44% - Recoil Energy of 35.81 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 3100 - 49% - Recoil Energy of 38.97 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 3200 - 55% - Recoil Energy of 41.58 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 3300 - 59% - Recoil Energy of 45.10 (ft.lbf)

338 - 285 ELDM - 2500 - 28% - Recoil Energy of 42.86 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 2600 - 30% - Recoil Energy of 45.16 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 2700 - 32% - Recoil Energy of 47.46 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 2800 - 37% - Recoil Energy of 49.76 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 2900 - 43% - Recoil Energy of 52.06 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 3000 - 48% - Recoil Energy of 54.36 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 3100 - 52% - Recoil Energy of 56.66 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 3200 - 57% - Recoil Energy of 58.96 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 3300 - 65% - Recoil Energy of 61.26 (ft.lbf)
 
Last edited:
Jan 9, 2011
457
81
28
OKC
#15
Basically this told me what I suspected/knew: a short mag with 7 or 6.5 is a clear winner in percentages. So between those two it's just a matter of your intended goal. (Let's avoid a 6.5 vs 7 saum argument thread though I'm sure one exists somewhere)
 
Jan 9, 2011
457
81
28
OKC
#17
What program are you running these Sims on? Ultimately though I think your parameters need some adjustments. Wind call within 1 is super tough. And a SD of 15 is pretty high for hand loads, and target range within 25 yards is pretty poor with range finder capabilities.

The wind call change alone may change things significantly, probably in favor of the 7 mm.
 
Sep 1, 2011
181
38
28
Rockwall, TX
#20
Basically this told me what I suspected/knew: a short mag with 7 or 6.5 is a clear winner in percentages. So between those two it's just a matter of your intended goal. (Let's avoid a 6.5 vs 7 saum argument thread though I'm sure one exists somewhere)

Competitive shooter would probably choose the 6.5 for the recoil benefits but let's check some light 7mm bullets and see how much we lose on the Hit %. It would be nice to have a low recoil load and an ELR load in a 7mm SAUM.
 

1J04

Morale Officer
Aug 7, 2011
9,789
5,840
113
PACIFIC NW
#21
Short Action Only? That's Racist. :giggle:

Just fer shits-n-giggles can ya do a mild 7MM RemMag 168 Berger VLD Hunting BC 0.618 G1 BC @ 2900 fps. I mean really. Who wouldn't ask. :LOL:

Curious. :unsure:
 
Likes: SilentStalkr
Sep 1, 2011
181
38
28
Rockwall, TX
#36
What program are you running these Sims on? Ultimately though I think your parameters need some adjustments. Wind call within 1 is super tough. And a SD of 15 is pretty high for hand loads, and target range within 25 yards is pretty poor with range finder capabilities.

The wind call change alone may change things significantly, probably in favor of the 7 mm.
ColdBore by Patagonia Ballistics

These are all +/- 2MPH.
 
Jan 9, 2011
457
81
28
OKC
#48
So what I'm seeing for these mag cartridges is up to 1200 under the set parameters, velocity trumps a lower BC. That will change further out we go but I think a good trend to remember when looking at bullet choices.
 
Top Bottom